Episode 63: Conference Statistical Review

The Return of George!!!

@John
Correction: Nyal HAS sent in his letter and has officially resigned. He’s been an exmo for over a year now.

I knew that the wacky outtake feature would re-emerge with my episode! I also knew exactly which clip it would be.

Just finished listening. It was an entertaining podcast. I loved having George back, but wish he had said a little more this time. Tom is always great, and had some funny comments. I really enjoyed Alf O’Mega. It made me really wonder how many “active” members there are who really don’t believe – at all – and yet attend week after week, hold callings, and appear healthy (in the faith) Mormons.

I’m kind of with Nyal in that I wish the church would crash and burn, but I feel that way about nearly all organized religion.

I scratch my head often about why John & Zilpha choose to remain members. (I assume they both still are.) In my opinion, that stance only helps promote the church.

It is my greatest wish that everybody who disbelieved in Mormonism’s claims, would remove their names from the record. (Why support something you don’t believe in?) I would love to see the actual numbers truly reflect something – real life – rather than leave us all wondering how many “true” Mormons there are. In that sense, the Jehovah’s Witnesses are much more honest because they immediately remove names from their records if a person falls out of activity. And only the fully committed, adult, after months (often years) of study with them, are allowed to official join, by baptism. I wish the LDS church had such an honest approach.

Great episode and graphs. I know how I would answer the question of what statistic I would like access to: The number of temple recommend holders. I think that is the gauge of the true strength of the church. And even that number wouldn’t be a perfect proxy for the strength of the church as I personally know a more than a few who are not completely orthodox believers who have recommends. However, it would give a pretty good sense of how strong (or not) the church is.

As for the total church members, especially convert baptisms, all you have to do is serve a mission or listen to the stories of baseball/soccer/basketball/English-lesson/swimming-pool/Whatever baptisms to know that the numbers are enormously inflated.

Totally enjoyed this episode. Personally, statistics and numbers is not the way I geek out — I geek out with pop-culture referenes and snarkiness. But despite the topic, each one of you is an interesting person. Alf was great — very articulate and spot on to all the conversational ebbs and flows. Tom, George, and John were all on top of your games. In fact, it feels a little “old school” ME — just need some Jim and Nyal to complete it.

Highlights: Sears catalogue and stats on Hot sister missionaries. Nice.

I’m pretty comfortable with what Gary Lawrence lays out here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXfkYvYRkSU

Oh, one more point: I notice that the number of converts per missionary peaked during my mission years.

Yep, you’re welcome, Mormon Church.

Great podcast. My only disappointment was that you did not discuss the highly inconsistent and non-sensical “Deaths, Defections, and Adjustments” numbers – always my favorite derivation from the conference report. If their accounting is this bad with members, I can only imagine what happens with money.

I think the only reason why prospective missionaries have to attach a picture to their papers is so that the boys in SLC can send the hot sisters to temple square. I even had a non-member friend (and avowed atheist) who returned from a recent trip to SLC comment on how all of the missionaries there were very attractive. She said her dad got suckered in by a gorgeous blonde with a british accent – ended up getting a tour and handing over contact information for their whole family. I have never seen an ugly girl get sent to Temple Square.

Hot sisters are like the City Creek of missionaries, you only want beautiful things around the temple so as to preserve the, um, Spirit. Plus sisters can’t be in mission leadership, baptize people, or run the small branches all over the world, so we might as well send all the pretty ones to walk around Temple Square right? Mormon sexism at its finest.

If I could have any number reported every year it would be the net $ increase – the amount total money generated (tithing, businesses, etc) minus all expenses (with a break-down of charity given by the church). GA salaries would be a good one as well. Total temple recommends is a close third.

Although you briefly discussed it, I would have also liked a deeper comparison of children of record compared to missionary service. Assuming 50% of children of record are males, and the majority of male missionaries leave when they are 19, how many children of record never make it to a mission? Is there enough data to make any assumptions here?

A clarification about the discussion of general membership numbers and the U.S. Census. The Census Bureau does not ask about religious affiliation and, in fact, is prohibited by law from doing so. (I guess John didn’t fill out his Census questionnaire. )

However, there is excellent demographic information available in last year’s Pew report, “A Portrait of the Mormons”:

http://pewforum.org/Christian/Mormon/A-Portrait-of-Mormons-in-the-US.aspx

Good episode, guys. I really think that Alf does a great service to everyone in not just compiling and analyzing the data, but putting graphs to it as well (I’m a visual learner).

What’s the one stat that I would want disclosed? I agree with the temple-recommend holders. Then again, I’d also like to see temple attendance on a per-temple basis to see if the temples in Utah are really needed, or if they could be spread out other places where there’s less availability to the temples.

I have one interesting statistic to add. When I was in a high council just before leaving the church in the summer of 2007, the stake president reported that a GA had told him and other North West stake presidents that 80% of Young Adults in Canada and the US were inactive. Their reactivation was to be a big focus for the leadership at that time.

Given that at least 50% of members are inactive, it was still surprising to me at the time that an additional 30% of Young Adults would be inactive.

Have you seen or heard of any numbers similar to this Alf?

It was pleased to hear from George again. Also, if anyone was listening to the podcast until the very end (after the closing music), you will have the pleasure of about two seconds of bonus material. Alf O’Mega makes a funny comment that I’m guessing he thought was off the air. But I won’t give away what he said. You’ll have to listen for yourself.

Dr. James Dobson in his book “Preparing for Adolescence” famously claimed that his research demonstrates that 90% of men will admit that they’ve masturbated at least once – and the other 10% are lying.

So after hearing that no male who acknowledges that they have ever masturbated can be an LdS Missionary I couldn’t help but wonder why the LdS Church has released an army of liars out into the mission field!

Having listened to the pod cast & the way general conference is structured, it reminds me of my work for a sales and marketing company. You use the statistics to tell your audience what you want them to hear i.e. that you are the best. Then you tell them the, feel good, stories to make them comfortable with their choice. Welcome the LDS cooperation!